Pressure Builds for Fossil Fuel Transition Plan at COP30
A rapidly expanding coalition of more than 80 countries is urging COP30 to launch a formal process to design a global roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels, the world’s largest source of global warming. This initiative aims to lock in the spirit of the historic COP28 agreement in Dubai, which for the first time explicitly recognised the need to move away from oil, gas and coal.
The demand centres on the “Mutirão” decision, expected to be the central political outcome of the Belém summit. The call is backed by a diverse mix of nations, including industrialised economies such as the UK, Germany and the Netherlands, major emerging countries like Colombia and Kenya, and low-lying Pacific Island states particularly vulnerable to climate impacts.
UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband described the coalition as a rare moment of unity between the Global North and Global South. “This is an issue that cannot be swept under the carpet,” he said, emphasising the opportunity for COP30 to build on what was agreed at COP28.
Momentum Grows Despite Resistance from Oil-Producing Countries
The push for a transition plan has accelerated since Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva floated the idea during the leaders’ summit nearly two weeks ago. However, major fossil fuel-producing nations—particularly Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states—have been pushing back strongly since the Dubai agreement referenced fossil fuels for the first time in a UN climate outcome.
The European Union, despite supporting the Dubai decision, has not yet finalised a collective position on the global roadmap, surprising many negotiators given how fast the proposal has gained traction in Belém.
“Key for 1.5°C”: Small Island States and Climate Champions Push for Stronger Text
For vulnerable states such as the Marshall Islands, a global shift away from fossil fuels is “key for keeping the door open to 1.5°C and limiting the duration of overshoot,” said climate envoy Tina Stege. Her remarks echo last month’s warning by UN Secretary General António Guterres, who said the global temperature is on track to temporarily exceed the Paris Agreement threshold.
Stege criticised the current draft of the Mutirão decision presented by the Brazilian presidency, saying references to a fossil fuel roadmap were “weak” and optional. “It must be strengthened and it must be adopted,” she insisted.
The draft text outlines several options, including the possibility of a roundtable to support “just, orderly and equitable transition roadmaps” at the national level. However, this appears far less ambitious than the global roadmap sought by over 80 countries.
COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago said the text “opens the door between two extremes,” noting that while many nations are supportive, for others the issue remains a “red line.”
Backlash Expected from Major Oil and Gas Exporters
Colombia’s Environment Minister Irene Vélez argued that a global transition plan “must be the legacy of COP30,” urging countries not to miss a generational opportunity.
Experts point out that nations such as Brazil and Colombia, whose fossil fuel reserves are relatively costly and limited, have strategic reasons to push for rapid global alignment. “They don’t have the luxury of waiting it out,” explained Antonio Hill of the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI).
However, strong resistance is expected from petrostates, particularly within the Arab Group, led by Saudi Arabia. While Kenya has endorsed the call for a roadmap, many African governments remain cautious about committing to a phase-out of fossil fuels.
Africa Calls for a Fair, Funded and Development-Friendly Transition
Richard Muyungi, chair of the African Group of Negotiators, highlighted the continent’s nuanced position. African countries, he noted, are the least responsible for global emissions but rely on diverse energy sources to achieve development goals. Africa, he said, must not be pushed toward a transition that jeopardises its growth.
Corrêa do Lago stressed that developed nations must take the lead, acknowledging the profound economic and social implications of the global shift.
Former German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan emphasised that a roadmap must reassure countries it will not impose a top-down model. Instead, it should be “nationally driven, fair and inclusive,” incorporating climate finance and guaranteeing a dialogue between producers and consumers.
