A Planet Under Pressure
Global greenhouse-gas emissions soared to 55 Gt CO₂e in 2023, a new record and 3% higher than 2015. While OECD members managed a 10% reduction since 2015, partner countries saw emissions rise 12%, reflecting the uneven pace of the transition.
The world’s biggest emitters — China (≈30% of global output), India, and Saudi Arabia — all registered increases, offsetting reductions achieved in Europe and other OECD regions. Together, OECD and partner economies account for 78% of total emissions, underlining their decisive role in shaping global climate outcomes.
Climate Commitments Falling Short
The OECD reveals a widening “delivery gap” between countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and real-world emissions. The combined shortfall stands at 2.5 Gt CO₂e, equivalent to 8% of total emissions.
Even more concerning, only 17.7% of global emissions covered by net-zero pledges are backed by legally binding laws. Although 114 countries and the EU have set such targets, enforcement remains weak, with only 30 countries translating pledges into legislation. This lack of accountability undermines trust and progress.
The 2050 Consistency Gap adds another layer of concern: countries’ 2030 goals are collectively misaligned by 4.6 Gt CO₂e, jeopardizing the mid-century net-zero pathway.
The Energy and Transport Challenge
Energy remains the largest source of emissions. The electricity and heat sector accounts for 33% of global GHGs. OECD countries achieved a 21% cut since 2015 (to 3.9 Gt CO₂e), thanks to renewable energy growth, while partner countries’ emissions rose 37% (to 8.4 Gt CO₂e).
The transport sector, responsible for 15% of global emissions, shows mixed progress. OECD transport emissions are unchanged since 2015 (~3.5 Gt CO₂e), while partner countries’ emissions grew 20%, reaching 2.1 Gt CO₂e. Despite electric vehicle (EV) incentives and planned bans on internal combustion engines, transport remains a stubbornly “hard-to-abate” source.
The OECD urges countries to accelerate clean mobility, expand green hydrogen and sustainable fuels, and rethink urban design to promote low-carbon lifestyles.
Industrial and Agricultural Pressures
The industrial and manufacturing sectors contribute 24% of global emissions, with strong regional contrasts.
- In OECD economies, manufacturing and construction emissions dropped 20%, and industrial process emissions fell 5%.
- In partner economies, manufacturing decreased 13%, but industrial processes increased 30% (to 2.9 Gt CO₂e) — driven largely by China’s heavy industry.
Agriculture adds 11% of total emissions, still rising in developing regions (+4% since 2015). The OECD highlights that sustainable food systems, regenerative agriculture, and soil-carbon restoration are indispensable to align food security with decarbonisation.
LULUCF: The Uncertain Carbon Sink
Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) remains the most uncertain variable in global accounting.
The gap between national inventories and IPCC global estimates reaches 7 Gt CO₂e per year — about one-sixth of all emissions. This inconsistency could mask real progress or overstate mitigation.
The OECD calls for transparent Earth-observation systems, better land-use data, and stronger biodiversity co-benefits in climate policy. Protecting forests, wetlands, and natural carbon sinks is not optional — it’s foundational to a liveable planet.
Climate Impacts: Human and Economic Losses Soar
The physical costs of climate inaction are mounting. In 2024, climate-related disasters caused USD 328 billion in losses, of which only 43% were insured. More than 16,000 deaths and 167 million people were affected.
Extreme heatwaves — 2,300 deaths in Europe (June-July 2025) — and floods are pushing ecosystems and communities to their limits. From wildfires to droughts, the OECD estimates that heat-related mortality could quadruple by 2050 without urgent adaptation.
Investment in resilience and disaster prevention could cut reconstruction costs five- to seven-fold, underscoring the economic sense of early adaptation.
The Policy Slowdown Threatens the Paris Goals
The OECD’s Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework (CAPMF) shows climate policy activity rose by only 1% in 2024 — continuing a global slowdown since 2021.
Between 2010 and 2021, climate policies grew at 10% per year. Now, progress has nearly stalled. Despite wider coverage — 87 policy types across 97 jurisdictions — key tools like carbon pricing still cover less than half of global emissions.
Positive signals include record investments in low-carbon R&D, expansion of emissions trading systems, and new coal phase-outs, yet the report warns: “We are losing momentum exactly when acceleration is most critical.”
Closing the Ambition and Delivery Gaps
To remain on a 1.5°C trajectory, global emissions must fall 40% by 2030 and 63% by 2035 compared to 2023 levels. Current NDCs, however, imply only a 16% reduction (≈5.5 Gt CO₂e) — far below what science demands.
The forthcoming NDC 3.0 (2035) submissions offer a chance to re-align near-term goals with net-zero 2050 targets. The OECD urges stronger international cooperation on green finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building, particularly for developing economies.
Towards a Sustainable Transition
The Climate Action Monitor 2025 closes with a stark warning and a call to action:
“The cost of inaction is rising — economically, socially, and environmentally. Stronger, faster, and fairer implementation is the only way forward.”
For the OECD, that means:
- Legally binding net-zero frameworks in every major economy.
- Accelerated fossil fuel phase-outs in energy and transport.
- Nature-positive and inclusive transitions that empower communities and preserve ecosystems.
The path to sustainability is narrowing, but it remains open — if global actors choose collective ambition over inertia.
