A recent report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) highlights the remarkable growth of the ocean economy, which doubled in real terms from USD 1.3 trillion in 1995 to USD 2.6 trillion in 2020. However, the report emphasizes that sustained prosperity and environmental sustainability in this crucial sector necessitate strengthened international cooperation and coordinated policy action. Titled “The OECD Ocean Economy to 2050,” the analysis identifies key priorities for policymakers to navigate the future of the ocean economy, effectively balancing economic opportunities with the urgent need for environmental responsibility.
Over the past quarter-century, the ocean economy has consistently contributed between 3% and 4% of global gross value added, demonstrating steady growth without significant downturns. Key drivers of this expansion include offshore oil and gas, marine and coastal tourism, marine fishing and aquaculture, maritime transport, and port activities. Despite this impressive track record, the report cautions that various factors pose potential threats to future growth. These include the escalating impacts of climate change, evolving demographic shifts, trade disruptions, and a lack of sufficient investment in both productivity enhancements and the transition to green energy sources.
The OECD’s projections paint contrasting future scenarios. In a scenario characterized by stagnant investment in productivity and a stalled energy transition, global ocean economic activity could witness a substantial decline of approximately 20% below 2020 levels by the middle of this century. Conversely, an accelerated shift towards cleaner energy sources, coupled with significant technological innovation, could support continued growth in the ocean economy, although potentially at a more moderate pace compared to past performance.
OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann stressed the critical importance of enhanced ocean policies and international collaboration, stating, “Improving ocean policies and international co-operation is an economic imperative. Through science-based policy, improved management of marine spaces, and innovative digital solutions, we can protect the jobs, livelihoods, and food security of hundreds of millions of people who depend on the ocean.” This statement underscores the significant human element tied to the health and productivity of the ocean economy.
The report acknowledges the progress made in strengthening the policy and governance frameworks for the ocean and its economy over the last decade, both at national and international levels. This includes the development of national ocean strategies, maritime spatial planning initiatives, the establishment of ocean economy statistical accounts, and ongoing international negotiations concerning biodiversity, climate change, fisheries management, and the decarbonization of the shipping industry. Nevertheless, the OECD emphasizes the need for increased policy attention to address critical issues such as market concentration and illicit activities within the ocean economy.
To ensure a resilient and sustainable future for the ocean economy, the OECD report puts forth several key policy recommendations. These include:
- Strengthening policy action and collaboration to enhance overall ocean management.
- Accelerating the energy transition away from reliance on fossil fuels.
- Adopting advanced digital technologies and data collection systems to improve understanding and management of ocean resources.
- Fostering deeper co-operation with developing countries on matters related to the ocean economy.
- Maximising the benefits of ocean economic activity for livelihoods and overall wellbeing.
- Promoting the conservation, sustainable use, and restoration of fragile marine ecosystems.
The analysis presented in the report is grounded in new OECD calculations derived from detailed tables within the Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) database. These detailed insights provide a comprehensive understanding of the ocean economy’s significant contribution to global prosperity. Furthermore, the forward-looking scenarios extending to 2050 are constructed based on historical productivity trends, allowing for an assessment of potential future growth trajectories for the ocean economy under different conditions.
